ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 26 1998 A NEW AND POTENTIALLY SERIOUS FORECAST PROBLEM HAS ARISEN. AT THE MOMENT...BONNIE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT...AND ITS CENTER IS COMING ASHORE. HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF TODAY/S COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT THE NEARBY SHORT-WAVE COULD BYPASS THE HURRICANE...LEAVING IT TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY FOR A DAY OR TWO. IF THIS OCCURS...IT COULD CREATE AN ENORMOUS FLOOD PROBLEM. SUPPORTING THIS CONSIDERATION IS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS THE NEARBY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AXIS NOW APPROACHING THE LONGITUDE OF BONNIE. THE NE-SW STRETCHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH MIGHT BE EXERTING ITS MAXIMUM INFLUENCE ON THE MOTION OF BONNIE AT THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND NOW KEEPS THE CENTER OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL FORECAST. A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT REPORTED 116 KT AT THE 8000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL. A DROPWINDSONDE RELEASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY THE AIR FORCE MEASURED 110 KT IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE 100 KT. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL. WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE THE CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY EXTRAPOLATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 959 MB. DROPSONDE PRESSURES...NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS FIX...HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY 3 OR 4 MB HIGHER. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 34.0N 78.0W 100 KTS...INLAND 12HR VT 27/0600Z 34.8N 77.7W 90 KTS...INLAND 24HR VT 27/1800Z 35.6N 77.3W 70 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 28/0600Z 36.4N 76.3W 65 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 28/1800Z 38.1N 73.2W 60 KTS 72HR VT 29/1800Z 41.5N 63.5W 55 KTS NNNN