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Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 AM MST Sat Oct 03 2026
 
Rachel's convective structure has gradually become less impressive 
over past day.  Satellite imagery shows the deep convection nearly 
void in the northwest quadrant, which is likely allowing some dry 
air to entrain into the center of Rachel.  The latest subjective 
Dvorak current intensity number from TAFB is 4.5/77 kt.  Recent 
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65-72 kt.  
The initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt for this advisory.

Rachel is now moving slowly west-northwestward, or 290 degrees at 3 
kt.  A mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the western United 
States has a ridge extending southwest out in front of Rachel's 
path.  Rachel is expected to continue moving quite slowly for the 
next 2 days as the ridge remains in place to Rachel's 
west-northwest.  Early next week, a mid- to upper-level trough to 
the west of the ridge will very gradually strengthen and drift 
eastward, which will slowly erode the ridge over the 3- to 5-day 
time period.  This will allow Rachel to gain some forward speed by 
hour 60, with a continued motion between west and west-northwest.  
The NHC track forecast is slightly north of the previous track 
through 60 h, and slightly south of the previous official track at 
days 4-5. The NHC forecast is in good agreement with the latest HFIP 
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), and lies slightly to the south 
of the latest Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean through 96 h.  It should 
be noted that there is a fair amount of north-south (cross-track) 
spread in the guidance, and forecast confidence appears to be near 
average.

Additional gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours as 
sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) decrease along Rachel's path while 
the cyclone moves over the cold water wake left over by Hurricane 
Polo last week.  After Rachel emerges out of Polo's cold wake, some 
slight restrengthening is expected, and this restrengthening is 
shown in the HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and HWRF models.  Beyond hour 72, 
Rachel will reach dry mid-level air with relative humidity values 
near 40 percent.  SSTs will also be decreasing at that time, and 
Rachel is expected to cross the 26C degree SST isotherm in about 4 
days.  The NHC forecast continues to show weakening in the 3- to 
5-day time frame due to the drier air and cooling SSTs.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is still near the high end of the guidance 
envelope through the first 4 days and closer to the middle of the 
guidance envelope by day 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 19.6N 112.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 19.9N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 20.2N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 20.3N 114.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 20.5N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 20.7N 117.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 20.8N 119.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 21.3N 122.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 22.3N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 
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