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Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM MST Fri Oct 02 2026
 
Rachel's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat over the past 
several hours, with the eye becoming obscured in conventional 
satellite imagery and some mid-level dry air entraining into the 
northeastern portion of the circulation. However, recent microwave 
imagery indicates that the inner-core structure remains intact. A 
0429 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass helped refine the wind radii and 
structure. The latest Dvorak Data-T estimate from TAFB decreased to 
4.5/77 kt, with objective intensity estimates ranging from 87 to 104 
kt. Given these estimates and the degraded satellite presentation, 
the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt.
 
The initial motion is westward, or 270/4 kt, and this motion is 
expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed over 
the weekend and into early next week as a mid-level ridge builds to 
the north. A gradual bend toward the west-northwest is forecast 
between 72 and 96 h as the ridge begins to weaken. The track 
guidance remains in decent agreement on this scenario, although some 
differences remain in the timing of the increase in forward speed 
by early next week. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the 
previous prediction and lies near the HCCA and GDMI aids.
 
Although modest east-northeasterly shear and some dry mid-level air 
are currently influencing the convective structure, environmental 
conditions largely remain favorable for Rachel to remain near its 
current intensity during the next 12 h, especially while the 
inner-core structure remains intact. Thereafter, increasingly dry 
mid-level air is forecast to begin wrapping into the system, while 
some east-northeasterly shear could persist. These factors should 
gradually disrupt the inner-core structure and induce a weakening 
trend. Increasingly marginal sea surface temperatures later in the 
forecast period should support continued weakening through day 5. 
The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the 
previous advisory, showing Rachel holding steady over the next 12 h 
and then gradually weakening thereafter. This intensity forecast 
remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope through the 
forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 19.4N 110.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 19.5N 111.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 19.5N 111.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 19.7N 112.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 19.8N 113.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 19.9N 114.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 20.1N 115.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 20.6N 118.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 21.6N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
 
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