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Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 AM MST Wed Sep 30 2026

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Rachel has a large and 
elliptical central dense overcast with cloud tops of colder than 
-80C.  The storm also has a lot of outer banding, particularly in 
the western semicircle. However, despite the well-organized 
appearance, shear analyses suggest the cyclone is still experiencing 
15-20 kt of easterly to northeasterly shear.  Satellite intensity 
estimates are currently in the 60-77 kt range, and the initial 
intensity is set at 75 kt based on these and continuity from the 
previous advisory.

The initial motion is northwestward or 315/8. Rachel continues to 
move along the southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge over 
northern and central Mexico.  This ridge is weakening due to the 
effects of a large mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor 
imagery over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. 
As this trough moves northeastward and weakens during the next 
couple of days, this should allow another ridge to build to the 
north of the tropical cyclone.  As a result, Rachel is forecast to 
turn west-northwest and pass well south of the Baja California 
Peninsula before continuing westward away from land. The new 
forecast track has minor nudges from the previous track, and it lies 
generally near the center of the track guidance envelope.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening through 
at least 48 h, and rapid strengthening is a possibility once the 
hurricane develops a tighter inner core. However, two possible 
negative influences include the ongoing shear and Rachel crossing a 
track of cooler water left by Polo. Later on the forecast period, 
decreasing sea surface temperatures under the forecast track and dry 
air entrainment could cause some weakening. The new intensity 
forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and it lies near the 
upper edge of the intensity guidance.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of
Mexico and the coastal watches and warnings have been discontinued, 
wind gust of tropical-storm force are possible along portions of 
the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight.
 
2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to 
portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall 
may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in 
areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 18.1N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 18.8N 108.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 19.3N 109.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 19.7N 110.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 19.9N 110.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 20.0N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 20.2N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 20.5N 115.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 20.7N 117.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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