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Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM MST Wed Sep 30 2026

Rachel is becoming better organized as the north-northeasterly 
vertical wind shear over the system appears to be relaxing.  After 
strengthening into a hurricane around 0600 UTC, the system is 
developing better-defined convective banding features, 
especially over the western quadrant of the circulation.  Deep 
convection remains very intense, with numerous cloud tops as cold 
as -80 deg C.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying a research 
mission into Rachel measured 84-kt winds at the 700 mb flight 
level.  Based on this observation and the increased organization on 
satellite images, the advisory intensity is set to 75 kt.  This is 
somewhat higher than the subjective Dvorak estimate and objective 
estimates from UW-CIMSS.

The forward speed has slowed somewhat and the current motion 
estimate is 315/9 kt.  Rachel continues to move along the 
southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge over northern and 
central Mexico.  The ridge is weakening due to the passage of a 
mid- to upper-level trough/low over the southern United States, and 
this is gradually slowing the steering current.  As the low lifts 
northward during the next couple of days, this should allow another 
ridge to build to the north of the tropical cyclone.  As a result, 
Rachel is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and pass well 
south of the Baja California Peninsula before continuing westward 
away from land. The official track forecast is similar to, but 
slightly slower than, the previous NHC prediction.  This is a blend 
of the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google 
DeepMind guidance.

Given the decrease in vertical shear, and expected passage over 
very warm waters, significant strengthening seems likely during the 
next 24-36 hours.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance 
indicates a substantially higher than normal probability of RI.  
The official intensity forecast anticipates that Rachel will 
quickly strengthen into a major hurricane by tomorrow if not 
sooner.  This is also similar to the latest HCCA prediction.
Beyond 48 hours, drier low- to mid-level air could cause some 
weakening.  The NHC intensity forecasts is on the high side of the 
model guidance envelope.

The outer wind radii were adjusted based on data from recent 
ASCAT-B/C overpasses.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of
Mexico, tropical-storm-force winds are expected along a portion of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in the warning area this morning.
 
2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to 
portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall 
may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in 
areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 17.6N 107.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 18.4N 108.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 19.2N 109.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 19.5N 109.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 19.7N 110.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 19.9N 111.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 20.1N 112.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 20.4N 114.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 20.8N 116.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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