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Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
300 PM CST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
Recent visible satellite imagery shows that banding features
associated the cyclone remain fragmented, but a couple of ASCAT
passes from just after 1500 UTC revealed an area of 35 kt winds to
the southeast of the center.  Therefore, the system has reached
tropical storm status, making Rachel the seventeenth named storm in 
the eastern Pacific basin this season.

Rachel is moving west-northwestward or 295/4 kt. A deep-layer 
ridge building over Mexico is expected to steer the cyclone 
west-northwest at a faster forward speed through mid-week.  This 
heading should result in the core of the storm passing well south 
of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days.  
After 72 hours, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge 
over northwestern Mexico as a trough moves into the southwestern 
United States.  This should cause Rachel to slow, but remain on a 
northwestward to west-northwestward track when it is located well 
southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  The NHC track 
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the 
typically reliable consensus aids. 

The SHIPS model continues to diagnose about 20 kt of northeasterly 
shear over the system.  The shear does not appear to be prohibitive 
for strengthening.  In fact, most of the intensity guidance calls 
for gradual strengthening during the next couple few days, and 
Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. After that 
time, there is uncertainty with regards to SSTs as Rachel may track 
over the cool wake from Hurricane Polo.  As a result, the NHC 
intensity forecast plateaus near the end of the forecast period 
between the Google Deep Mind and HFIP corrected consensus 
solutions. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 12.6N  99.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 13.1N  99.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 13.9N 101.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 14.9N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 15.8N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 16.8N 106.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 17.7N 107.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 18.7N 108.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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