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Hurricane Polo Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026
 
Polo continues to intensify at a very rapid rate, and it is closing 
in on category 5 strength. Satellite images indicate that Polo has a 
compact, well-defined eye surrounded by an intense eyewall. The 
estimated initial intensity is 130 kt, which is based on a blend of 
the latest subjective and objective satellite estimates. The NOAA 
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Polo later today, and 
the data they collect will provide a better estimate of the 
cyclone's intensity. The intensification rate over the past 24 hours 
is truly remarkable, with Polo strengthening by about 90 kt over 
that time period. Despite its strength, Polo remains a relatively 
compact cyclone with its hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds 
estimated to only extend about 30 and 80 n mi from the eye, 
respectively.
 
The major hurricane continues to drift to the east-southeast, and it 
could become nearly stationary later today in weak steering 
currents. A sharp turn to the northwest is expected tonight as 
deep-layer ridging becomes established over Mexico and the 
south-central U.S. This pattern should bring the intense core of 
Polo near, but likely just offshore, of the coast of southwestern 
Mexico during the next couple of days. There is still a considerable 
amount of uncertainty in how close the hurricane will get to the 
coast, and some wind, rain, and surf impacts appear likely when Polo 
makes its closest approach. Polo should begin to pull away from 
southwestern Mexico Thursday night and Friday as the ridge keeps the 
system on a west-northwestward to northwestward path. The steering 
currents become more complicated over the weekend when Polo reaches 
the western edge of the ridge and nears Tropical Storm Odalys to its 
west. This pattern change should cause Polo to slow down and gain a 
little more latitude. The NHC track forecast has been nudged 
southward, but still lies on the northern side of the guidance 
envelope.
 
Polo remains in ideal environmental conditions and continued rapid 
intensification appears likely, and the cyclone is forecast to reach 
category 5 strength later today. It should be noted that in mature 
and powerful hurricanes like Polo, internal dynamics often cause 
intensity fluctuations and that could occur with this cyclone over 
the next couple of days. Beyond that time, a slight increase in 
easterly vertical wind shear should cause slow weakening, but Polo 
is expected to remain a major hurricane throughout the forecast 
period. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model 
guidance in the short term, but falls to near the middle of the 
guidance envelope from 48 to 120 hours.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
2. Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to remain offshore 
of southwestern Mexico, it is too soon to determine the exact 
location and magnitude of impacts. A Tropical Storm Watch is in 
effect for portions of southwestern Mexico, and interests in these 
areas should closely monitor updates to the forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 14.6N 101.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W  150 KT 175 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 15.0N 101.8W  145 KT 165 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 15.7N 102.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 16.4N 103.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 17.0N 105.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 17.4N 106.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 18.2N 109.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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