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BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number  19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2026
 
...NOLO STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII INTO THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 155.6W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 155.6 West. Nolo is moving
toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this 
general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through 
late Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest and west with an 
increase in forward speed is forecast Saturday and Sunday. On the 
forecast track, the center of Nolo will remain well south of the 
main Hawaiian Islands.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that 
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Nolo 
is expected to become a major hurricane on Saturday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 985 mb 
(29.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nolo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin by late
Friday in the warning area, with hurricane conditions possible by
early Saturday, particularly in areas of steep terrain.
 
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area beginning on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: For the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island, 
Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 30 inches with maximum 
amounts of 35 inches.  This rainfall could produce catastrophic 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.

For the western portions of the Big Island, rainfall totals of 5 to 
8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are expected. For Maui, 
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches 
are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, 
especially in areas of high terrain. 

Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 
to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with 
isolated flooding possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Hurricane Nolo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total 
Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Hawaii County...1 to 3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast and will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east-
and south-facing shores of the Big Island by Friday, spreading
westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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