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Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  53
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Oct 03 2026
 
Nolo continues to display a compact and nearly symmetric pattern in 
satellite imagery, and infrared imagery shows that cloud tops 
around the eye have cooled since the last full advisory. Based 
on the improved structure, Nolo was upgraded to a 100-kt major 
hurricane on the 8 AM HST intermediate advisory. Since then, HFO and 
JTWC each provided Dvorak estimates of T5.5/102 kt, and the highest 
UW-CIMSS objective numbers are around that same value. The intensity 
of 100 kt is therefore maintained on this advisory.

The forward speed has continued to increase this morning and is now 
about 15 kt, with Nolo being steered quickly westward by an 
expanding mid-level ridge to its north. The hurricane's speed is 
likely to oscillate between 15 and 20 kt for much of the upcoming 5 
days as ridging remains established at varying magnitudes. The 
track guidance remains more tightly clustered than usual for the 
first 3 days of the forecast, and Nolo is expected to cross the 
International Date Line in 24-30 hours. The model spread is a little 
higher on days 4 and 5. Some models, including the European, HAFS-B, 
GDMI, and HCCA show a continued westward trajectory, while the GFS, 
HAFS-A, HWRF, and COAMPS-TC show a bit of a turn toward the 
northwest or north. These scenarios appear to be related to how much 
Nolo might interact with a disturbance currently near the Marshall 
Islands (Invest 94W) and a longwave trough expected to move east of 
Japan. For now, the NHC forecast continues to favor the more 
westward scenario.

Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures around 28 degrees 
Celsius should support further intensification during the next day 
or so, but intensity guidance suggests the period of rapid 
intensification is complete. In fact, recent microwave data show 
a moat now surrounding the eyewall, with a secondary eyewall 
potentially forming about 25-30 n mi out from the center. This could 
mean an eyewall replacement is about to occur, which typically leads 
to fluctuations in intensity in the short term. If the eyewall 
replacement occurs quickly enough, Nolo could reach a higher peak 
intensity in 24-36 hours before shear begins to increase. The 
increased shear and surrounding dry environment are likely to cause 
significant weakening in the 3- to 5-day forecast period, and the 
NHC forecast has been lowered during that time frame compared to the 
previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 23.2N 173.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 23.3N 175.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 23.8N 179.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 24.7N 177.6E  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 25.1N 174.5E  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 25.3N 170.9E  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 25.6N 166.6E   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 26.5N 158.5E   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 27.3N 152.3E   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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