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Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  51
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Fri Oct 02 2026
 
Nolo is rapidly intensifying this evening, with cold cloud tops 
associated with deep convection expanding symmetrically around a 
very warm eye. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both JTWC 
and HFO came in at T5.0/90 kt, which align with objective estimates. 
Given these intensity estimates and the continued improvement in the 
satellite presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt. 
 
The initial motion is westward, or 270/9 kt. Guidance remains in
good agreement through the forecast period, with very little
cross-track spread, and shows a generally westward motion continuing
through the weekend. A gradual increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 h as the ridge builds to the north, with a faster
westward motion continuing thereafter. Nolo is forecast to cross the
International Date Line into the western Pacific basin by 48 h. The
latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous 
prediction.

The significant strengthening anticipated in the previous advisory 
is well underway, with Nolo's intensity having increased by about 20 
kt during the past 6 h. The persistent westerly to southwesterly 
vertical wind shear that had been impacting Nolo's convective 
structure has weakened significantly, with the latest UW-CIMSS 
estimate around 5 kt. Weak shear combined with warmer SSTs along 
the forecast track should support additional strengthening during 
the next 24-48 h. The primary limiting factor continues to be the 
surrounding dry mid-level air. Any dry air intrusions during this 
period could disrupt the convective organization in the eyewall and 
slow the intensification rate. The latest NHC intensity forecast has 
been increased from the previous advisory, showing Nolo becoming a 
major hurricane within 12 h and reaching a peak intensity of 120 kt 
in 36-48 h. The forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance 
envelope, lying close to the HCCA and HAFS-A and -B. A weakening 
trend is forecast to begin after 48 h as increasing vertical wind 
shear and dry mid-level air begin to gradually affect its structure.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 23.3N 169.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 23.3N 171.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 23.6N 175.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 24.2N 178.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 24.9N 177.9E  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 25.3N 175.0E  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 25.5N 171.4E  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 25.9N 162.6E   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 27.0N 155.1E   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs 
 
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