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Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 26 2026

Nolo appears to be gradually strengthening since the last aircraft 
mission several hours ago.  The eye is becoming a little better 
defined and convection has been increasing over the southern and 
southwestern portions of the circulation.  The hurricane has fairly 
well-defined upper-level outflow over all quadrants.  Using a blend 
of the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and the various 
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the advisory intensity 
is increased to 85 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Nolo later this morning to 
check on the intensity of the system.

The hurricane continues moving mainly westward or just slightly 
south of westward, at around 260/8 kt.  Nolo should move mainly 
westward on the southern side of a mid-level ridge for the next 24 
hours or so. After that, the system is likely to turn northwestward 
due to the influence of a mid- to upper-level low near 165W/170W.  
Later in the forecast period, a turn back toward the west is 
expected as Nolo rotates around the northern portion of the low.  
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one except 
slightly slower in the 4-5 day time frame.  This is close to the 
latest model consensus.

Nolo should remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear for 
the next day or two.  This, along with a sufficiently warm ocean, 
should result in the system strengthening into a major hurricane 
within the next 36 hours.  Later in the forecast period, the SHIPS 
model output shows a significant increase in shear, so weakening is 
likely from 48 to 96 hours.  Around the end of the period, the 
shear may relax and potentially allow from some restrengthening.  
The official forecast is on the high end of the model guidance 
envelope.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Strong and gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian 
Islands through the weekend, and interests in the Hawaiian Islands 
should continue to monitor the progress of Nolo.
 
2. Rain bands will continue through tonight across the Big Island
and Maui, though the showers are expected to gradually diminish in
intensity and frequency through Sunday. Additional areas of flooding
and mudslides will be possible, especially in areas of steep terrain
across the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island and
eastern Maui.
 
3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big
Island's coastline through the weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 16.5N 157.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 16.5N 158.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 17.0N 160.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 18.1N 162.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 19.8N 163.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 21.5N 163.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 22.5N 164.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 22.8N 165.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 22.8N 168.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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