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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026
 
Marie's appearance has changed little since the last advisory. 
Recent IR satellite imagery indicates the hurricane continues 
to have a ragged banding eye with a dry air wrapping around the 
north of its center. The initial intensity remains 80 kt for this 
advisory, based on the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate of 4.5/77 kt and 
the UW-CIMSS objective estimates including SATCON, DPRINT, and 
DMINT which were all around 80 kt as of 1200 UTC.

Only very slight changes were made to the NHC forecast for Marie to 
show a slightly faster storm motion during the next couple of days. 
Otherwise, the forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and 
remains heavily based on the HCCA consensus. The hurricane is 
forecast to move northwestward for the next day or two, generally 
along the western periphery of a ridge centered over the southern 
United States. Slow weakening is expected during this period as the 
cyclone encounters gradually drier air (SHIPS diagnostics indicate 
environmental RH below 60 percent) and SSTs of 25-27 deg C. 

A temporary west-northwestward bend will be possible next week as 
Marie becomes weaker and shallower, but the cyclone should 
ultimately accelerate northwestward or north-northwestward by 
late Tuesday in response to a deep-layer trough that models 
indicate will build to its west. The forecast uncertainty increases 
during this period, but the model spread has decreased since 
yesterday so confidence in the forecast is growing. Simulated 
satellite imagery indicates Marie will lose its remaining deep 
convection and become a remnant low near or just after 96 h.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 21.8N 120.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 22.5N 121.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 23.3N 122.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 24.1N 123.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 24.7N 124.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 25.4N 125.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 26.5N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 29.4N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 33.3N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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