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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Marie currently has a ragged banding eye in satellite imagery, 
which is open to the north due to a patch of dry air currently 
located to the north of the center. The various satellite intensity 
estimates have edged down just a little, and based on them the 
initial intensity is reduced to 80 kt.

The hurricane is now moving northwest or 315/7 kt. The cyclone 
should continue slowly northwestward for the next two to three days 
as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge. After 72 h, 
Marie is forecast to encounter a large mid- to upper-level trough 
west of California. As that happens, the cyclone is likely to 
become decoupled vertically, with the low-level part of the 
circulation turning north-northwestward. The new track forecast is 
in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and is 
similar to the previous forecast. As in the previous advisory, it 
should be noted that model spread is quite large beyond 2 to 3 days.
 
For the first 24-36 h, Marie will be over seas surface temperatures 
of 26-27C and in a light vertical shear environment. During this 
time, dry air entrainment is forecast to cause a slow weakening. 
The weakening rate should increase after 36 h as the cyclone moves 
over colder water, and after 72 h strong shear associated with the 
aforementioned trough should become the final factor in causing the 
associated convection to dissipate. The new intensity forecast has 
a few tweaks to better follow the overall trend of the guidance, 
and it calls for the system to weaken until it degenerates to a 
remnant low around 120 h. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 21.4N 119.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 22.1N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 22.9N 121.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 23.6N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 24.3N 123.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 24.9N 124.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 25.7N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 28.2N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 32.1N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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