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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026
 
Marie is contending with dry air today, which is likely inhibiting 
significant strengthening. A broad region of dry air persists 
immediately west of the hurricane, and recent infrared satellite 
imagery shows a dry slot wrapping from the southwest to the 
northeast around the center. This dry-air intrusion has 
substantially weakened the deep convection that was previously 
concentrated north and east of the eye. However, recent objective 
and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 73-90 kt. The 
initial intensity is maintained at 85 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is 285/7 kt, with the hurricane moving along the 
southeastern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge centered between 
Marie and Hurricane Karina well to the west. A strong closed low 
moving into the Pacific Northwest today is expected to weaken this 
ridge and induce a turn toward the northwest tonight through this 
weekend. Through 72 h, the updated track forecast lies near the  
middle of the guidance envelope, and is closest to the Google 
DeepMind and HCCA. As Marie weakens early next week, the cyclone is 
expected to become increasingly steered by the low- to mid-level 
environmental flow. An eventual turn toward the north is possible by 
midweek as a new trough approaches the western U.S. Beyond 72 h, the 
forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous advisory, and 
Marie is expected to remain well offshore of the western United 
States. 

Marie is currently moving over warm waters of 27-28 C and through an 
environment of low wind shear, but dry mid-level air continues to 
take its toll on the hurricane. Increasingly unfavorable upper-level 
winds are expected to support very slow weakening over the next day 
or two, followed by more pronounced weakening early next week as 
Marie moves over cooler waters and into an increasingly dry 
mid-level environment. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF 
and GFS suggests that Marie may struggle to maintain organized 
convection by the middle of next week. Accordingly, the latest NHC 
intensity forecast calls for Marie to degenerate into a 
post-tropical remnant low by day 5, with dissipation around day 6. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 20.2N 118.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 20.9N 119.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 21.8N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 22.6N 121.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 23.3N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 24.0N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 24.7N 124.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 26.6N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 29.5N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Adams
 
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