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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026
 
The convective state of Marie has improved slightly over the past 6 
hours, with less evidence of the dry slotting that was observed 
earlier.  The center is embedded underneath the large convective 
canopy.  A recent SSMIS pass was helpful in estimating the center 
position.  The latest TAFB estimate remains T4.5/77 kt while the 
objective intensity estimates have increased slightly to the 80-87 
kt range.  The initial intensity is raised to 85 kt as the satellite 
presentation has improved since the time of the TAFB Dvorak fix.
 
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt.  A 
slightly slower motion in the same direction is expected over the 
next few days as Marie moves closer to a mid-level ridge located to 
its north.  In about 4 days, a mid- to upper-level trough 
approaching the west coast of the United States may induce a gradual 
turn toward the northwest.  Some of the model guidance has shifted 
to the right in the long-range forecast over the past couple of 
cycles, and the NHC forecast is shifted accordingly to the right 
(north) of the previous track at days 3-5.  The NHC forecast is just 
a bit to the southwest of the latest HCCA and GDMI models at those 
time ranges.  It should be noted that the spread in the track 
guidance remains large at days 4 and 5, and confidence in the track 
forecast is below average at those time ranges.
 
The vertical wind shear is expected to remain low along Marie's path 
for the next 4 days.  Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and 
atmospheric moisture will still remain favorable enough for some 
slight additional intensification to be possible through tonight. 
Thereafter, SSTs and moisture will gradually decrease along Marie's 
track for the remainder of the forecast period.  This will lead to 
gradual weakening beginning on Saturday.  Very little change was 
made to the first 2 days of the intensity forecast, during which 
time the forecast is near the higher end of the intensity guidance. 
A slightly faster rate of weakening is shown at days 4 and 5, and 
this portion of the forecast lies closer to the middle of the 
guidance envelope.  The NHC forecast shows the cyclone still hanging 
onto tropical storm status at day 5 as it remains well offshore of 
the Baja California Peninsula.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 19.6N 116.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.7N 118.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 22.2N 121.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 22.9N 121.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 23.5N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 24.5N 126.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 26.4N 128.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 
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