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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 AM MST Thu Sep 03 2026

Marie continues to gradually become better organized, with very 
deep convection near the center and a more symmetric convective 
pattern.  Satellite estimates have slightly increased since the 
last advisory, and the initial intensity is set to 75 kt, closest 
to the latest TAFB fix.  

The intensity forecast for Marie is tricky.  While it still has a 
couple of days over warm waters with light shear, the structure 
remains somewhat broad, with a large outer wind field.  So far, 
this has prevented anything other than gradual strengthening.  It 
is still a bit curious why most of the guidance don't intensify 
this much during the next day or two, given the conducive 
large-scale environment.  While it is possible that Marie will be 
affected by the wake of Iselle, the forecast track could also be 
far enough away to miss the bulk of the cooler SSTs.  The new 
forecast is raised from the previous one, splitting the difference 
between the higher SHIPS/LGEM/rapid intensification guidance and 
the lower regional hurricane/corrected consensus models.  A steady 
weakening is likely after the system passes over colder waters in 
about 3 days.

Marie is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt.  There are no 
changes to the previous synoptic pattern as this general course 
is anticipated to continue for the next several days due to a 
narrow ridge to the north.  While this ridge weakens later on, 
Marie should slow down a bit, but stay moving west-northwestward.  
The new forecast is close to an update of the last one, near a 
consensus of the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and the HFIP 
Corrected Consensus HCCA model.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 18.9N 113.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 19.3N 115.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 19.8N 116.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 20.3N 118.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 21.0N 119.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 22.3N 121.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 22.9N 124.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 23.6N 127.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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