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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 PM MST Wed Sep 02 2026
 
The latest infrared satellite imagery shows a burst of convection is 
attempting to wrap around the center of Marie. This is a moderate 
amount of improvement over the last several hours, as the hurricane 
seems to have shaken off the dry air seen earlier. The most recent 
TAFB subjective Dvorak fix is T4.5/77 kt and the UW-CIMSS objective 
intensity estimates are in the range of 62-75 kt. Based on the 
given data for this advisory, the initial intensity has been set to 
70 kt making Marie a hurricane. 

The general motion for Marie is to the northwest at 320/10 kt, and 
the cyclone is expected to maintain that heading for the next 
several days as a narrow mid-level ridge located to the north will 
steer the hurricane off to the west-northwest. During this time, the 
cyclone should slow down as the ridge gradually weakens. There is 
still a good amount of cross-track spread that is due to how much an 
amplified mid-latitude trough, off the western United States coast, 
erodes the previously mentioned ridge. The current NHC track is 
similar to the previous track but slightly farther south. This track 
is still a bit north of the HCCA track. 

The intensity for this forecast is a little higher than the previous 
forecast. Given that the hurricane is expected to continue to be in 
favorable conditions with sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), diagnosed 
by the SHIPS guidance between 27-29 C, relative humidity around 70 
percent, and light wind shear, Marie is likely to continue to 
intensify. The peak forecast is tricky in this situation due to the 
potential for Marie to move over the cold wake left by Iselle last 
week, as these waters may cap the peak intensity. Marie should be 
crossing the 26 C SST isotherm after 60 h, and weakening is expected 
to begin in earnest beyond this time period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 18.4N 113.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 19.7N 115.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 20.7N 118.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 22.0N 120.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 22.9N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 23.4N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Hagen
 
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