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Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 AM MST Wed Sep 02 2026
 
Conventional satellite animation and microwave images indicate that 
Marie's cloud pattern has improved during the past several hours.  
An impressive primary spiral band with cold cloud tops of -83C 
resides on the eastern half of the cyclone, and inner core deep 
convection continues to become better organized.  A compromise of 
TAFB's Dvorak satellite intensity estimate and the CIMSS objective 
estimates yields an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory.
 
Favorable environmental conditions along with warm sea surface 
temperatures should allow for further strengthening during the 
couple of days.  By the weekend, the Decay-SHIPS 
statistical/dynamical intensity guidance and the global models 
indicate that Marie will encounter a drier, stable marine layer air 
mass while moving over progressively cooler oceanic temperatures.  
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the HFIP HCCA consensus and 
just above the IVCN consensus aid.

Marie's initial motion is estimated to be northwest, or 305/8 kt, 
and this general motion should continue through today.  Afterward, 
subtropical high pressure over northern Mexico/Baja California 
peninsula is expected to build westward over the extreme eastern 
Pacific, steering the cyclone generally west-northwestward.  Over 
the weekend, the above-mentioned ridge should weaken some, and model 
guidance cross-track uncertainty remains due to two possible 
synoptic pattern solutions.  A few of the regional models 
(HWRF/HMON/TC-COAMPS) and the UKMET indicate an amplifying mid- to 
upper-level trough capturing Marie and steering the cyclone toward 
the northwest to north.  The majority of the guidance, on the other 
hand, show a cut-off upper low developing well to the north over the 
eastern Pacific but allowing enough ridging to maintain north of the 
cyclone.  The official track forecast favors the latter solution and 
lies between the HCCA consensus and the Google DeepMind FNv3 
ensemble mean.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 17.1N 111.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 17.8N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 18.7N 114.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 19.4N 115.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 20.1N 117.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 20.7N 118.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 21.3N 119.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 22.5N 122.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 23.2N 125.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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