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Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 PM MST Tue Sep 01 2026
 
The satellite presentation for Marie continues to improve this 
evening, with the low-level center beneath deep convection with 
cold cloud tops near -80C. Satellite intensity estimates have also 
increased, with the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from 
TAFB T3.5/55 kt. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range 
from 37 to 55 kt. Based on the improving satellite trends and these 
estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 55kt.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 310/8 kt. This motion is 
expected to continue for the next day or so as Marie rounds the 
western periphery of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. The ridge is 
then forecast to build to the north of the system, which should 
cause Marie to gradually turn toward the west-northwest. Beyond 72 
hours, track uncertainty increases as an amplifying trough along the 
U.S. West Coast is forecast to cause the system to slow down. While 
there is less confidence in the track late in the forecast period, 
the latest NHC forecast continues to lie near the reliable HCCA and 
GDMI consensus aids with a more westward track.
 
Marie is moving over warm sea surface temperatures and will remain 
in a low vertical wind shear environment for the next couple of 
days. The system remains fairly broad, but steady strengthening is 
anticipated once the structure becomes better organized. Some of the 
latest SHIPS rapid intensification guidance is around a 50 percent 
chance of RI in the next 24 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous one and closely follows the trends of the 
HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, although does not explicitly call for 
rapid intensification. Some guidance shows a faster rate of 
strengthening, though this remains heavily dependent on how quickly 
the system's structure improves. Toward the end of the forecast 
period, Marie is forecast to move over cooler SSTs and into a drier, 
more stable air mass, which should induce a gradual weakening 
trend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 16.1N 110.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 16.9N 111.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 17.9N 112.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 18.7N 114.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 19.4N 115.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 19.8N 117.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 20.5N 118.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 21.8N 121.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 22.8N 123.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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