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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  56
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Sep 09 2026

Lowell's convective structure on satellite imagery is not very 
impressive, consisting of a well-defined low-level swirl with some 
colder cloud tops attempting to form on the northeast side of the 
circulation. The storm is clearly being negatively impacted by 
moderate westerly shear importing nearby dry air and marginally warm 
sea-surface temperatures. Scatterometer data received after the 
prior advisory indicated a robust surface wind field remains, with 
peak wind-retrievals in the 45 to 50 kt range. However, subjective 
and objective satellite estimates continue to decrease, and assuming 
the low-level circulation continues to spin down without much deep 
convection, the initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory.

The tropical cyclone has turned westward, with the estimated motion 
now 280 degrees at 12 kt. Lowell is now being steered primarily by a 
low- to mid-level ridge located north of the tropical storm, and 
this should maintain a general westward motion over the next 24-36 
h. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough located northwest 
of Lowell is anticipated to cutoff and interact with the cyclone, 
with the track guidance coming into better agreement that this will 
lead to a sharp turn to the northwest or north in 60-72 h. By the 
end of the forecast period, the upper-level cutoff low moves east 
of Lowell, leaving behind a shallow low-level circulation sandwiched 
between two low-level ridges. The track guidance responds to this 
change by indicating a slow southward drift as the cyclone becomes a 
remnant low. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the prior one 
for the first 2-3 days, but shows a sharper turn southward 
by the end of the forecast. This track is closest to the Google 
DeepMind (GDMI) and HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) aids.  

Moderate westerly vertical wind shear, abundant dry air, and only 
marginally warm sea-surface temperatures are likely to lead to 
further weakening over the next 36 h. In fact, Lowell could struggle 
to produce enough convection to be considered a tropical cyclone 
during this period. Nonetheless, the aforementioned trough 
interaction in the 2-3 day time frame will likely reinvigorate some 
convection on the storm's down-shear side via baroclinic processes, 
which could help intensify Lowell's wind field. Most of the 
intensity guidance shows at least some intensification during this 
period of interaction, and the NHC intensity forecast was adjusted 
somewhat to reflect this solution, though it remains below the 
HAFS-A/B hurricane models. After 72 h, the upper-level low 
interacting with Lowell will pass it to the east, leaving the storm 
in an area of enhanced subsidence that will likely diminish the 
remaining convection when the storm will be over sub-26 C SSTs. 
Thus, the latest NHC forecast still shows Lowell becoming a 
post-tropical low in 96 h. There is still a healthy amount of track 
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast, though the guidance is 
coming into better agreement on Lowell losing its tropical 
characteristics by this time.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 29.2N 165.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 29.3N 167.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 29.2N 169.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 29.4N 171.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 30.6N 172.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  12/1200Z 32.2N 172.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 33.3N 173.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 32.8N 175.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0000Z 31.6N 175.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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