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Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 03 2026
 
The cloud pattern of Lowell suggests the hurricane is contending 
with some easterly shear. Upper-level outflow is limited on the 
eastern side of Lowell, and satellite images today have shown 
evidence of some dry air intrusions into the circulation. An 89-GHz 
AMSR3 passive microwave image received just after the previous 
advisory indicated an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) was underway, 
with a larger outer eyewall surrounding a weaker inner one. This 
is consistent with the larger eye now observed in recent visible 
images of the hurricane. Lowell remains a formidable major 
hurricane, and the latest Dvorak CI numbers along with recent 
D-PRINT and SATCON estimates support holding a 120-kt intensity.

Lowell is moving over very warm waters with high oceanic heat 
content, and the environmental and oceanic conditions appear 
favorable for Lowell to maintain its intensity or strengthen 
slightly during the next several days. Although it has experienced a 
bit more easterly shear than expected today, the hurricane has been 
resilient. In general, the intensity guidance shows little 
appreciable change in intensity during the next few days, with small 
fluctuations likely to occur related to internal dynamic processes 
with limited predictability, such as future ERCs. Thus, the NHC 
intensity forecast maintains Lowell as a major hurricane with no net 
change through 72 h. By days 4-5, some weakening is predicted as 
southwesterly vertical wind shear increases over Lowell. However, it 
is still forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when 
making its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands. 

The hurricane continues moving westward (275/9 kt) to the south of a 
mid-level ridge over the Central Pacific. A gradually slower 
westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Then, a 
mid- to upper-level trough over the northern Pacific is forecast to 
dig southward and erode the steering ridge. As a result, Lowell is 
predicted to turn sharply toward the north or north-northeast this 
weekend, and then accelerate northward early next week. This track 
should bring the center of Lowell near or just west of the 
westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday into early Tuesday. 
There is less spread noted in the track guidance envelope at days 
3-5, and the NHC forecast remains between the simple (TVCN) and 
corrected (HCCA) consensus aids. However, the long-range track 
details are of lower confidence, and residents in the Hawaiian 
Islands should closely monitor the latest NHC forecast updates.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it 
moves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and 
Monday night. While it is still too soon to determine the exact 
track of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and 
rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.

2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the 
progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to 
the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane 
plan and supply kit in place. 

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf 
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands 
during the next several days.  These swells are likely to increase 
early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 13.6N 158.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 13.6N 159.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 13.7N 160.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 13.7N 161.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 14.0N 162.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 14.5N 163.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 15.5N 163.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 19.0N 162.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 24.5N 162.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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