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Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026
 
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Lowell continues to strengthen, as
evidenced by the improvement in the structure of the core.  A large
central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops covers the center.
The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and PHFO range from
65-90 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates range from
69-78 kt.  The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt, blending the
estimates.
 
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or about 285/9 kt.  A
mid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell will remain the primary
steering influence during the next 4 days, resulting in a generally
westward to west-northwestward motion, and confidence is high on
this general track scenario.  A slight southward adjustment was made
to the NHC track forecast at days 3-5, but the new forecast is not
as far south as the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA)
and Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI) models.  In about 4 days,
Lowell should slow down, as a mid- to upper-level trough well north
of the Hawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge.  The trough
could cause Lowell to start a turn to the northwest or north in
about 5 days.  For this reason, interests in the Hawaiian Islands
should continue to closely monitor Lowell's progress.
 
Warm water temperatures and weak vertical shear should continue 
along Lowell's path for at least the next 5 days.  Lowell will 
likely strengthen to a major hurricane over the next 24 h.  It is 
quite possible that Lowell could then maintain major hurricane 
strength through the next 5 days.  Very little change has been made 
to the previous NHC intensity forecast, which lies between the 
middle and upper end of the guidance envelope.  Given that Lowell 
may be in the midst of rapid intensification, and that some models 
like the HCCA show an even higher intensity, it is possible that 
Lowell could strengthen more than forecast.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 13.5N 150.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 13.7N 151.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 13.8N 153.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 14.0N 155.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 14.2N 157.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 14.4N 159.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 14.5N 160.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 14.7N 163.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 15.3N 164.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 
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