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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026
 
Lowell's satellite presentation has changed little during the past
several hours. A large area of deep convection continues to expand
over the low-level circulation center, with cloud-top temperatures
of -80 C or colder within the developing central dense overcast.
Although some easterly vertical wind shear continues to affect the
cyclone, the shear has decreased considerably from what was observed
over the weekend. The latest subjective Dvorak and objective
intensity estimates have changed little this evening. Therefore, the
initial intensity is held at 60 kt.
 
The initial motion is westward, or about 280/9 kt. A low- to
mid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell should remain the
primary steering influence during the next several days, resulting
in a generally westward to west-northwestward motion. The track
guidance has come into better agreement and generally shows Lowell
continuing west-northwestward through much of the forecast period.
By days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to gradually slow and gain
some latitude as a mid- to upper-level trough well northwest of the
Hawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and
remains between the TVCN simple consensus, the multi-model consensus
(HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
Environmental conditions appear increasingly favorable for 
significant strengthening during the next couple of days. Although 
some easterly vertical wind shear persists, the shear is forecast to 
decrease further while Lowell moves over warm waters. The recent 
increase in convection near the center could be an indication that 
the cyclone is beginning to respond to these improving conditions. 
The intensity guidance continues to show significant strengthening, 
with several of the models forecasting Lowell to become a major 
hurricane within the next couple of days. The latest NHC intensity 
forecast calls for Lowell to become a hurricane with the next 12 h 
and a major hurricane by Wednesday night. Little change in intensity 
is forecast thereafter as Lowell remains within a generally 
favorable environment through day 5.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward to 
west-northwestward and could be in the vicinity of the Hawaiian 
Islands late this week or this weekend. Interests in Hawaii should 
monitor the progress of this storm.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 13.1N 148.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 13.3N 149.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 13.5N 151.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 13.7N 153.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 14.0N 155.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 14.3N 157.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 14.6N 159.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 14.8N 161.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 15.2N 164.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
 
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