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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 31 2026
 
Moderate easterly shear is still having some affect on Lowell.  
Although a 31/1047Z AMSR2 pass and a 31/1459Z GPMI pass suggest that 
the internal structure of the convection is becoming better 
organized around the center, the shear needs to abate just a bit 
more, in order for the low- and mid-level centers to better align 
vertically, before the cyclone can strengthen significantly.  The 
latest subjective Dvorak estimates from PHFO and JTWC range from 
45-65 kt, and objective estimates have been ranging from 45-50 kt.  
The initial intensity is held at 55 kt based on a blend of the 
intensity estimates.
 
The initial motion is just south of due west, or 265 degrees at 11 
kt.  A mid-level ridge north of Lowell will be the primary steering 
mechanism for the next few days.  Lowell should move generally 
westward to west-northwestward during that time.  By day 4 and 5, 
Lowell could gain some latitude as it feels some pull from a mid- to 
upper-level trough located well to its north.  The HFIP Corrected 
Consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble (GDMI) are the fastest 
and farthest south models. The latest NHC forecast track is nearly 
identical to the previous forecast for the first 72 hours, and then 
is slightly to the left of the previous track at days 4-5.  The 
latest NHC forecast lies in between the TVCN simple consensus, which 
is a bit slower and to the right, and the HCCA, which is faster and 
to the left.

SHIPS and UW-CIMSS vertical wind shear analyses indicate that the 
easterly wind shear is starting to decrease, and is likely around 
10 kt now.  Satellite imagery suggests that it may take a little 
more time for the core of Lowell to be ready to begin intensifying 
more quickly.  The HAFS models, as well as the HWRF and HMON all 
forecast the cyclone to become a major hurricane over the next 2 
days, so no significant change has been made to the NHC intensity 
forecast.  The shear is expected to be weak throughout the next 5 
days and water temperatures will remain warm along Lowell's path, 
so the forecast calls for Lowell to maintain its strength through 
day 5 as a major hurricane.  The intensity forecast remains between 
the middle and higher end of the intensity guidance envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward and could be in the
vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands late this week or this weekend. 
Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of this storm.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 12.9N 146.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 13.0N 147.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 13.3N 149.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 13.5N 151.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 13.7N 153.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 14.1N 155.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 14.4N 157.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 14.9N 160.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 15.3N 162.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 
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