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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026
500 PM HST Sat Aug 29 2026
 
Lowell's convective organization has changed little during the past 
several hours. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear continues to 
displace the bulk of the deep convection over and west of the 
low-level circulation center. Based on a blend of an earlier 
scatterometer pass, the latest objective intensity estimates, and 
the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB, the initial 
intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory.

Lowell is moving westward, or 270/8 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge 
positioned north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering 
influence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued 
westward motion. The track guidance is in generally good agreement 
during this period. Thereafter, considerable cross-track spread 
develops in the guidance, likely due in part to the potential 
influence of Tropical Storm Karina on Lowell's steering flow. The 
latest HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean have shifted slightly 
southward and maintain a generally westward motion, while the GFS, 
regional hurricane models, and simple consensus (TVCN) support a 
gradual west-northwestward to northwestward turn later in the 
forecast period. Given the considerable spread among these 
solutions, the latest NHC track forecast reflects a blend of the 
previous forecast, HCCA, and Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and has 
been nudged slightly southward from the previous advisory.

The moderate easterly vertical wind shear affecting Lowell is 
forecast to persist in the short term, which should temper the rate 
of strengthening. However, the shear is expected to gradually 
decrease during the next day or two while Lowell remains over warm 
waters, which should allow the cyclone to become better organized 
and gradually strengthen. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
become more favorable thereafter, with very low vertical wind shear 
expected by early next week, and a faster rate of strengthening is 
anticipated. The intensity forecast becomes increasingly uncertain 
later in the period due to Lowell's potential interaction with 
Karina. The current forecast track keeps the cyclones sufficiently 
separated for Lowell to continue strengthening, while a slower and 
more northwestward solution could expose Lowell to stronger shear 
associated with outflow from Karina and result in a weaker cyclone. 
The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from 
the previous advisory and remains near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 13.2N 138.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 13.1N 139.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 13.0N 142.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 13.1N 145.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 13.2N 147.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 13.4N 149.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 13.6N 152.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 14.3N 154.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
 
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