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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 29 2026

Lowell remains a sheared cyclone at this time, with the low-level 
center near the eastern edge of the main convective mass.  Since the 
organization and the various satellite intensity estimates have 
changed little from the previous advisory, the initial intensity 
remains 40 kt.

For the past 12 h or so Lowell has been moving west-northwestward 
or 285/11 kt. A westward motion should resume soon and continue for 
the next 2-3 days as a low- to mid-level ridge to the north is the 
main steering influence. After that time, the track guidance splits 
into three camps, likely due to the potential effects of Tropical 
Storm Karina on Lowell's steering flow.  One camp, which includes 
the Google Deepmind Ensemble Mean, the HFIP Corrected Consensus, 
the UKMET, and the ECMWF - which has flip-flopped into this camp - 
calls for Lowell to continue generally westward. A second camp, 
which includes the GFS and the various regional hurricane models, 
forecast a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest. The third 
camp, which includes the Canadian, Canadian Ensemble Mean, the GFS 
Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM, have Lowell slowing its westward 
motion, with the NAVGEM turning it back to the east.  Needless to 
say that with this kind of spread the forecast is low confidence.  
Overall, the guidance envelope has trended a little more to the west 
and a little faster. That being said, the new forecast track is a 
little north of the previous track due to the current 
west-northwestward jog.

The ongoing shear has been slower to diminish than forecast 
yesterday. However, the dynamical models are in good agreement  
that it should diminish during the next 12-24 h, with Lowell 
strengthening as it becomes vertically aligned. After 24 h, the 
intensity forecast shows a faster rate of development as conditions 
become more favorable. By the end of the forecast period, the
intensity forecast becomes more uncertain due to Lowell's potential
interaction with Karina. The forecast intensity, which has minor 
tweaks from the previous forecast, calls for Lowell and Karina to 
stay far enough apart for Lowell to maintain its strength or keep 
strengthening. However, a slower forward motion could expose Lowell 
to stronger shear associated with outflow from Karina and cause a 
weaker storm. The new intensity forecast again lies in the middle 
of a guidance envelope with significant spread.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 13.2N 137.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 13.2N 138.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 13.1N 140.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 13.1N 142.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 13.2N 144.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 13.3N 146.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 13.4N 147.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 13.8N 150.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 14.4N 152.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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