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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026
500 AM HST Sat Aug 29 2026

Lowell is slightly better organized than it was at this time 
yesterday, as the low-level center is now beneath the convective 
overcast. However, satellite imagery suggests that the mid-level 
center is still displaced west of the low-level center due to 
ongoing easterly shear. Overnight scatterometer data suggest that 
the maximum winds were 35-40 kt, so the initial intensity remains 
40 kt.

Lowell continues moving westward or 280/7 kt. A low- to mid-level 
ridge is forecast to strengthen north of the cyclone during the 
next couple of days, which should cause Lowell to continue westward 
with some a gradual increase in forward speed. This general 
westward motion is expected to continue through the weekend and 
into early next week. After that, the guidance becomes quite 
divergent in both direction and speed due to the potential effects 
of Tropical Storm Karina on Lowell's steering flow. By 120 h, the 
Google Deepmind Ensemble mean shows a continued westward motion, 
the GFS, UKMET, and the regional hurricane models show a slower 
motion toward the northwest, the ECMWF shows a slow motion toward 
the west, and the Canadian model turns the cyclone northeastward. 
The new track forecast lies between the Google Deepmind and the GFS 
cluster of models, and it is similar to the previous forecast.

The current easterly shear should continue for another 18-24 h 
before diminishing. The shear, along with mid- to upper-level dry 
air seen in water vapor imagery just north of the cyclone, should 
result in slow strengthening through 24 h.  After that conditions 
become more favorable, and the intensity forecast shows a faster 
rate of development. By the end of the forecast period, the 
intensity forecast becomes more uncertain due to Lowell's potential 
interaction with Karina. As noted before, a faster westward track
would likely keep the cyclones sufficiently separated and allow
Lowell to continue strengthening, while a slower solution could
expose Lowell to stronger shear associated with outflow from Karina.
The latest NHC intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the 
previous forecast, and it lies near the middle of a guidance 
envelope that has a significant spread.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 12.8N 135.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 12.8N 137.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 12.8N 139.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 12.8N 141.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 12.9N 143.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 13.0N 145.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 13.1N 146.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 13.4N 149.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 13.8N 151.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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