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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 28 2026
 
There has been little change in Lowell's organization or intensity 
during the past several hours. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear 
continues to displace the bulk of the deep convection over and west 
of the low-level circulation center. While an earlier scatterometer 
pass showed slightly lower winds, a blend of the latest objective 
intensity estimates and the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate 
from TAFB supports holding the initial intensity at 40 kt for this 
advisory.

The cyclone continues to move slowly westward, with an initial 
motion of about 280/7 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to 
strengthen north of the cyclone during the next couple of days, 
which should cause Lowell to continue westward with a gradual 
increase in forward speed. This general westward motion is expected 
to continue through the weekend and into early next week. Track 
forecast uncertainty increases considerably thereafter due in part 
to the potential influence of Tropical Storm Karina to the northeast 
on Lowell's steering flow. There remains considerable spread in the 
guidance, particularly in forward speed, with the multi-model 
consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean generally faster 
than the GFS and ECMWF solutions. In addition to the along-track 
spread, the cross-track spread also increases considerably by day 5. 
Given these differences, the latest NHC track forecast has been 
nudged slightly southward and reflects a blend of the previous 
forecast and the latest HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

The easterly vertical wind shear currently affecting Lowell is 
forecast to persist into the weekend, then steadily decrease by 
Sunday night into Monday, which should allow the cyclone to become 
better organized and gradually strengthen. However, the current 
sheared structure and nearby mid- to upper-level dry air should 
temper the rate of intensification in the short term. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become more favorable thereafter, and a 
faster rate of strengthening is possible by early next week. The 
intensity forecast becomes more uncertain later in the period due to 
Lowell's potential interaction with Karina. A faster westward track 
would likely keep the cyclones sufficiently separated and allow 
Lowell to continue strengthening, while a slower solution could 
expose Lowell to stronger shear associated with outflow from Karina. 
The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the 
previous advisory and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 12.6N 134.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 12.8N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 13.0N 141.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 13.0N 143.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  31/1800Z 13.1N 145.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 13.3N 146.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 13.6N 149.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 13.9N 151.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
 
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