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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 27 2026
 
Lowell continues to produce a persistent area of deep convection
on the southwest side of its circulation, and banding features are
gradually becoming better organized west of the center. The
latest satellite intensity estimates generally range from 35 to 45
kt, and based on those values, the initial wind speed is nudged up
to 40 kt for this advisory. The storm appears to be experiencing
some northeasterly vertical wind shear based on its convective
pattern.
 
The initial motion estimate remains east-northeastward, or 65 
degrees at 5 kt, and that general slow motion could continue through 
the day. However, a turn to the west or west-northwest with an 
increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday as a ridge 
strengthens to the north of the system. Although the models 
generally agree on this overall pattern evolution, there remains 
considerable spread in the location of the turn and forward speed of 
the storm after it turns westward. The NHC track forecast leans 
toward the faster side of the guidance envelope, but is not as fast 
as the Google DeepMind and HCCA solutions, which have had a slight 
fast bias on storms in the eastern and central Pacific so far this 
season.
 
Lowell is expected to be in generally favorable environmental 
conditions for the next several days, with warm sea-surface 
temperatures, light to moderate easterly wind shear and relatively 
moist air. However, strengthening could be slow in the short term 
given its asymmetric structure. Most of the more reliable models 
show at least steady strengthening throughout the forecast period, 
and it seems likely that Lowell will reach hurricane strength over 
the weekend with additional intensification continuing into early 
next week. The NHC intensity forecast is similiar to the previous 
one and lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term and 
closer to the middle of the envelope at the latter forecast times.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 11.7N 133.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 12.1N 132.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 12.3N 133.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 12.5N 134.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 12.7N 136.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  30/1800Z 12.9N 138.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 13.1N 139.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 13.5N 143.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 13.9N 146.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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