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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 27 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance well to the 
west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula and well 
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands has developed well-organized 
convective bands. Recently received ASCAT data showed a closed 
circulation which, while elongated NE-SW, was producing winds near 
35 kt about 50 n mi southeast of the center.  Based on this, 
advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Lowell.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 065/4 kt.  During the 
next day or two, Lowell is expected to turn westward as a low- to 
mid-level ridge builds to the north.  A generally westward motion 
should continue for the rest of the forecast period. The guidance 
has some spread in the forward speed by 120 h, which seems to be 
due to possible effects on the steering flow by the larger Tropical 
Storm Karina to the east. The forecast track is near the center of 
the guidance envelope and splits the speed difference between the 
models.

Lowell will be over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 
five days and in an environment of light to moderate easterly 
shear. This should allow steady strengthening, and the initial 
intensity forecast is near the center of the intensity guidance.  
Since the environment is favorable and some of the guidance is 
stronger than the current forecast, it is possible that Lowell will 
strengthen more and faster than currently forecast.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 11.3N 133.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 11.6N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 12.1N 133.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 12.6N 133.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 12.9N 134.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 13.0N 136.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 13.2N 138.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 13.4N 141.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 13.8N 144.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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