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Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC for Karina at
1200 UTC were still 65 kt, while the most recent DMINT and DPRINT
estimates from UW-CIMSS are 62 and 69 kt, respectively. This
is the basis for the 65 kt initial intensity, though the ragged
convective structure of Karina and other lower objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS (like a SATCON of 56 kt) over the past few
hours suggest this could be a generous estimate.
 
Locating the center of Karina has become somewhat difficult, but the
motion is believed to still be toward the northwest at a slightly 
slower forward speed (305/7 kt). A deep-layer trough located to the 
north and northeast of Karina is allowing the cyclone to move more 
toward the northwest since last night, but the combination of the 
cyclone weakening and becoming shallow plus a ridge building over 
the north-central Pacific will likely cause Karina to turn 
westward by late Sunday. Models have generally shifted southward 
since yesterday, showing this turn occuring sooner than previously 
forecast, so the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction. 
It should be noted, however, that Karina is still expected to move 
well north or northeast of the Hawaiian Islands as a weak cyclone 
before it dissipates early next week.
 
A combination of southwesterly shear, dry air, and marginal SSTs 
should cause Karina to quickly weaken during the next several days. 
In fact, there are indications in satellite imagery that the low- 
and mid-level center of Karina are beginning to stretch apart due 
to that shear. No significant changes were made to the NHC 
intensity forecast, which is near the middle of the intensity 
guidance envelope. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 21.7N 143.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 22.1N 143.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 22.6N 144.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 23.0N 145.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 23.4N 147.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 23.9N 150.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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