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Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

Karina no longer has an apparent eye in visible satellite images. 
The center of the hurricane is embedded underneath a small cold 
overcast from an earlier burst of inner core convection. Water vapor 
imagery shows Karina is moving within a very dry mid-level 
environment, and some dry slots are noted within the circulation. 
The objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have 
decreased this cycle, with D-MINT, D-PRINT, and AiDT estimates 
ranging from 62-71 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is 
slightly lowered to 70 kt.
 
A subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina continues to steer the
hurricane toward the west (280/8 kt). A mid- to upper-level trough
is expected to weaken the ridge over the next couple of days, which
should allow Karina to gain some latitude as it moves toward the
west-northwest and northwest. Then, a more westward motion is
forecast before the system is absorbed well to the north of the
Hawaiian Islands by the outer circulation of Hurricane Lowell.
There are no major changes to the updated track forecast, which
lies slightly left of the previous prediction mainly due to a small
southward adjustment to the initial position of Karina.
 
Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days as Katrina
moves over marginal SSTs and encounters increasing southwesterly
shear. This shear should continue to import drier air into Karina's
circulation and disrupt its convective organization. The forecast
shows Karina weakening to a tropical storm on Saturday and becoming
a post-tropical low in 60 h. This intensity prediction remains very
close to the latest multi-model consensus aids (HCCA and IVCN).
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 20.7N 141.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 21.2N 142.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 21.9N 143.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 22.7N 144.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 23.2N 146.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 23.6N 148.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  08/0000Z 24.1N 150.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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