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Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026

The eye of Karina has become a little less well-defined over the 
past several hours with some breaks in the eyewall evident in 
satellite imagery.  The coldest cloud tops are around -60 deg C 
with more deep convection prevalent over the eastern semicircle.  
Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB have decreased 
somewhat, as have most of the objective intensity estimates from 
UW-CIMSS.  The advisory intensity is reduced only slightly to 85 
kt, which is close to the latest SATCON value from UW-CIMSS. 

The hurricane continues moving west-northwestward with a motion 
estimate of 285/8 kt.  Karina should continue this general motion 
during the next day or two while it is situated on the southern 
side of a mid-level ridge.  In 48 hours, a mid-level cyclone to the 
north of Hawaii is likely to cause a turn toward the northwest.  By 
96 hours, Karina should be a shallow weakening system and it will 
probably turn leftward while interacting with the circulation of 
Hurricane Lowell.  The official track forecast is very close to the 
previous NHC prediction and follows the corrected model consensus 
guidance.

Water vapor imagery shows Karina approaching an area of drier 
mid-level air which is likely to begin eroding the hurricane within 
the next day or so.  The SHIPS model output shows a significant 
increase in vertical wind shear commencing in about 36 hours.  
Although SSTs along Karina's path are not expected to cool that 
much more during the next few days, the hostile atmospheric 
moisture and shear are likely to cause Karina to weaken.  The 
system should become a post-tropical cyclone early next week, and 
dissipate soon thereafter. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 20.4N 139.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 20.7N 140.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 21.3N 142.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 21.9N 143.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 22.5N 144.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 23.3N 145.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 23.9N 147.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 25.3N 151.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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