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Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
500 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026
 
Karina continues to chug along as a strong hurricane, with a
well-established eye, despite dry air intrusion beginning to wrap
into the system. The latest subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB
remains unchanged at a T5.0/90 kt, which compliments the objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging from 87-90 kt. Given the above, the
initial intensity estimate remains unaltered at 90 kt.
 
The hurricane's initial motion has shifted northerly, now heading 
west-northwestward at 285/9 kt. Ridging to the north of the system 
has become eroded by an upper-level trough, which is expected to 
cause a turn to the northwest later this evening. The latest NHC 
forecast closely follows the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean, and is 
quite similar to the previous forecast. In about 3 days, Karina's 
proximity to Hurricane Lowell may also help induce a turn back 
toward the west-northwest. Despite this more westward turn, Karina 
is not expected to be a threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

The latest SHIPS guidance depicts Karina will begin moving into an
unfavorable environment over the next 12-24 h, showing an increase
in vertical wind shear, cooling SSTs, and a steady desiccation.
These factors will cause Karina to weaken over the weekend, with the
forecast calling for the system to become post-tropical by Monday
and dissipating shortly thereafter. The official NHC intensity
forecast was largely unchanged from the previous advisory, aligning
closely with the consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 20.1N 138.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 20.4N 139.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.9N 141.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 21.5N 142.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 22.2N 143.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 22.9N 144.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 23.6N 146.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 24.9N 150.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen
 
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