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Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 03 2026
 
Karina's cold cloud tops around the center appear more  
asymmetrical on satellite imagery, with dry air wrapping into the 
system. The latest subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB gave an 
intensity estimate of 90 kt, while objective estimates from CIMSS 
ranged from 90-95 kt. With Dvorak analyses continuing to trend 
downward, along with Karina's degraded appearance on satellite 
imagery, the initial intensity estimate was decreased to 90 kt.
 
Karina's initial motion was set slightly more westward at 275/9 kt.
The system continues to be guided by a subtropical ridge to its
north, but is still expected to turn more west-northwestward
into the weekend as an upper-level trough moves in and weakens the 
aforementioned ridge. Another complicating factor for Karina's 
track is for it to potentially interact with Lowell early next 
week, which may pull Karina a bit more westward than the last 
advisory had suggested. Global models seem to hint at this
possibility, so the latest official track forecast reflects a
slight westward shift, however Karina is not expected to be a 
threat to the main Hawaiian Islands.
 
The environment surrounding Karina is becoming increasingly drier
based on latest SHIPS guidance, which should induce weakening 
in the short term. Marginal SSTs and increasing vertical
wind shear are forecast to cause additional weakening over the 
weekend. Karina is expected to become a post-tropical system by 
Monday, before dissipating thereafter. The official NHC intensity 
forecast further hastens the rate of weakening, generally falling 
close to the consensus aids.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 19.8N 137.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 20.1N 139.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 20.5N 140.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 21.0N 142.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 21.8N 143.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 22.5N 144.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 23.3N 145.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 24.7N 148.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Brown
 
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