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Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
500 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026

Latest infrared satellite imagery of Karina suggests that convective 
cloud-top temperatures continue to warm. Karina continues to 
maintain an annular appearance, while the eye remains cloud-filled. 
The latest TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimate held steady 
from 18z to 00z, at 5.5/6.5 or 127 kt. Objective intensity estimates 
from CIMSS vary around 105-110 kt. Given the warming cloud-top 
temperatures over the last several hours, the initial intensity 
estimate was adjusted down slightly to 115 kt. 

Karina is currently moving west-northwestward around 9 kt. A 
subtropical ridge to the north of Karina should cause the cyclone to 
continue moving west-northwestward for the next couple of days.  
Karina is then expected to turn more northwesterly later this week 
as the subtropical ridge is weakened by an oncoming upper-level 
trough.  Karina's track forecast was nudged slightly to the east of 
the previous forecast, reflecting a blend of HCCA and GDMI. Models 
exhibit relatively strong agreement in Karina's track through the 
first 48 h, before spread increases thereafter.

While vertical wind shear is expected to remain very weak over the 
next 48 h, Karina is expected to track toward cooler SSTs and into 
a drier mid-level environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast 
shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous 
forecast, but still lies at the high end of the guidance envelope 
for the first 3 days, and then closer to the intensity consensus 
at days 4 and 5. The hostile environmental conditions should 
cause Karina to lose its convection and become post-tropical by 
day 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 19.3N 134.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 19.7N 136.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 20.1N 137.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 20.6N 139.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 21.1N 141.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 21.8N 142.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 22.7N 143.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 24.6N 145.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 26.1N 149.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Evans
 
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