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Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026
 
Karina remains a powerful major hurricane. However, the cyclone 
appears to have lost a little strength. The eye of the hurricane 
remains cloud filled and the cloud tops around the eye are not quite 
as cold as they were earlier this morning. The latest satellite 
intensity estimates range from 90 kt to about 135 kt, and based on 
that data and the slightly degraded appearance, the initial 
intensity is nudged lower to 115 kt.
 
The major hurricane is moving westward at about 10 kt. A general 
slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the 
next 3 to 4 days as a narrow mid-level ridge remains situated to the 
north of the hurricane. Over the weekend, a turn to the northwest 
seems likely as the ridge shifts eastward and as the cyclone 
approaches a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii. Little change 
was made to the previous forecast, except for a slight northward 
adjustment at days 4 and 5. Even though there is a fair amount of 
spread in the models toward the end of the forecast period, there is 
high confidence that the system will pass to the north of the 
Hawaiian Islands.
 
Karina is forecast to gradually lose strength over the next several 
days. Although the wind shear is expected to remain low for the next 
few days, progressively cooler SSTs and decreasing relative humidity 
values should cause steady weakening. However, the hurricane could 
become annular, which might cause it to weaken at a slower pace than 
average. The models are unanimous in showing weakening, but vary on 
the rate. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, 
and lies a little above the model consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 18.2N 129.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 18.4N 131.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 18.9N 133.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 19.3N 135.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 19.7N 137.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 20.0N 138.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 20.3N 140.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 21.6N 143.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 23.6N 146.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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