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Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 31 2026
 
This morning's visible and enhanced infrared imagery indicate
Karina's cloud pattern, particularly in the northwestern part of the
eyewall, has deteriorated over the last several hours. The lastest
TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate has decreased from the previous
classification, and the CMISS objective satellite intensity
estimates range from 110 to 115 kt. Therefore, the initial
intensity has been lowered to 115 kt for this advisory.
 
Karina's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 
285/8 kt. A narrow subtropical mid-level ridge anchored north of the 
cyclone should steer the hurricane in this general heading through 
the forecast period. Only slight adjustments were made to the NHC 
official forecast which is based on a blend of the HCCA and the 
GDMI aids. 
 
The environmental conditions should remain favorable for the short 
term, and slight intensity fluctuations are possible while Karina's 
inner core continues to experience structural changes. Through the 
remaining forecast period, a weakening trend is expected to occur 
while Karina moves into a drier, more stable air mass and traverses 
cooler oceanic temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast remains 
slightly above the skilled intensity models, and lies close to 
the NOAA HCCA consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 17.5N 125.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 17.7N 127.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 18.1N 129.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 18.5N 131.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 18.9N 133.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 19.3N 135.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 19.6N 136.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 20.3N 140.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 21.5N 144.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Roberts
 
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