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Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026
 
Convection has become better organized around the eye of Karina 
during the past several hours, with infrared satellite imagery 
indicating the development of a cold ring of cloud tops. The most 
recent TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate remains T4.0/65 kt. However, 
the most recent objective satellite estimates are in the range of 
70-99 kt. Based on the given data, the initial intensity has been 
set to 80 kt.
 
The cyclone continues to show that the inner core structure is 
improving, and with a favorable environment, Karina should be 
strengthening for the next couple of days. During this time, Karina 
could reach major hurricane status. However, the environmental 
conditions will start to become less favorable later on Monday and 
into Tuesday, when the intensification process should come to a 
halt. As the environment becomes more hostile, due to the 
progressively cooler waters and drier air, the hurricane should 
start to weaken during the middle and latter parts of the week. The 
current NHC intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance, 
but is very close to HCCA.
 
The hurricane is moving westward at about 8 kt. The high pressure 
system to the north of Karina is expected to weaken due to an 
amplifying trough over the western U.S. However, there should be 
enough ridging to keep Karina on a westward to west-northwestward 
course. There is still a good amount of spread in the track models 
days 3 and beyond at this time, so there is a higher degree of 
uncertainty in how far north the cyclone will move. The latest NHC 
track forecast is a bit farther south of the previous track, but 
still follows HCCA and GDMI aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 17.2N 123.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 17.1N 124.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 17.3N 125.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 17.6N 127.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 18.0N 129.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 18.6N 131.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 19.0N 132.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 19.9N 136.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 20.7N 139.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven
 
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