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Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026
 
The most recent satellite images show that Karina is undergoing 
some structural changes in the inner core as a new burst of 
convection has developed on the southwestern portion of the 
cyclone. The most recent TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate remains 
T4.0/65 kt, and the most recent objective satellite estimates are 
in the range of 61-80 kt. Thus, the initial intensity for this 
advisory remains at 70 kt. 

The cyclone has a good fundamental inner core structure and a 
favorable environment, thus Karina should be strengthening for the 
next day or two day. It will be around this time that Karina could 
reach major hurricane status. However, the environmental conditions 
will start to become less favorable later Monday, at which the 
intensification process should come to a halt. As the environment 
becomes more hostile, due to the progressively cooler waters and 
drier air, the hurricane should start to weaken during the middle 
and later parts of the week. The current NHC intensity forecast is 
on the higher end of the guidance, but still below the GDMI and the 
HCCA aids. 
 
The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. The high
pressure system to the north of Karina is expected to weaken due to
an amplifying trough over the western U.S. However, there should be
enough ridging to keep Karina on a westward to west-northwestward
course. There is still a good amount of spread in the track models 
days 3 and beyond at this time, so there is a higher degree of 
uncertainty in how far north the cyclone will move. The current 
NHC track is a bit further south of the previous track, but still 
remains on the northern side of the guidance envelope. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 17.3N 122.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 17.6N 125.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 17.8N 126.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 18.1N 128.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 18.6N 130.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 19.1N 131.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 20.0N 135.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 21.0N 138.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven
 
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