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Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026
 
The infrared satellite presentation of Karina has continued to 
improve tonight, with the center of circulation now located beneath 
a well-defined CDO with cloud top temperatures below -80 C. A recent 
GPM GMI microwave pass revealed a compact, but somewhat asymmetric 
center, with a slight lack of definition extending south and 
southwest of the center. Moderate southerly to southeasterly wind 
shear is also evident in the microwave imagery, with the mid-level 
center displaced slightly to the west and northwest of the low-level 
center. The latest intensity estimate from TAFB was 4.0/65 kt, while 
objective intensity estimates range from 52 to 66 kt. Based on the 
tilt in the vertical structure of the cyclone and the relatively 
wide range of intensity estimates, the initial intensity is 
maintained at 60 kt for this advisory.
 
Karina is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest and is 
currently positioned between a ridge of high pressure over the 
southwestern United States and another area of high pressure to the 
northwest. A turn toward the west is expected Sunday into Monday as 
a strong upper-level low approaches the western U.S., weakening the 
aforementioned ridge over the Southwest. Karina will then be steered 
primarily by the ridge to the northwest. There is considerable 
spread in the track forecast guidance beyond 60 h, largely due to 
differences in the strength of the ridge that will guide the storm. 
The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous 
advisory through 48 h, but has been shifted to the left for the 
remainder of the forecast period. The updated forecast remains near 
the middle of the track guidance and close to the simple consensus. 
 
The strong tropical storm is moving over very warm waters of around 
29 C in a relatively moist mid-level environment and favorable 
upper-level winds. Karina is forecast to steadily strengthen, 
although it should be noted that the ECMWF- and GFS-based SHIPS 
statistical guidance indicates a possibility of rapid 
intensification over the next 24 to 48 h. The latest forecast calls 
for Karina to become a hurricane later tonight and reach major 
hurricane strength early next week. This intensity forecast is near 
the higher end of the guidance envelope, but remains slightly below 
HCCA. After 72 h, Karina is expected to encounter increasingly dry 
air and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should promote 
gradual weakening through late next week. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 17.0N 120.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 17.3N 121.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 17.6N 123.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 17.8N 125.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 18.0N 126.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 18.7N 128.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 19.3N 130.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 20.7N 132.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 22.6N 134.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams
 
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