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Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Recent satellite imagery, along with microwave imagery, shows 
that Karina has made many improvements to its structure in the last 
several hours. However, there does appear to be some dry air that 
has gotten into the core of the cyclone, which should hinder its 
intensification a bit. The latest Dvorak fix from TAFB has T4.0/65 
kt, and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CMISS are in the 
range of 57-61 kt. Thus, the initial intensity has been set to 60 
kt for this advisory, just below hurricane strength.  
 
The storm continues on a northwestward heading of about 315/11 kt, 
driven by a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern United 
States. The storm is expected to slow down and turn westward as a 
mid-level trough to the north weakens this ridge, allowing for the 
ridge over the central North Pacific to build southeastward and take 
over as the primary steering flow. The current NHC track is very 
similar to the previous track except for a few small adjustments, 
and it closely follows the HCCA guidance.
 
The SHIPS guidance maintains a favorable environment for the cyclone 
to intensify for the next 60 h. With light wind shear, warm 
sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of moisture in the environment, 
the conditions are conducive for Karina to continue to intensify. 
Karina is at the edge of becoming a hurricane now, and is likely to 
reach that status well within the next 24 h. Models still maintain 
a fairly good signal for the cyclone to become a major hurricane 
within the next 48 h, but that could occur sooner if the structure 
of the storm gets better organized. After this weekend, SHIPS 
diagnostics indicate that the environment will gradually become less 
favorable, which will lead to a slow weakening trend. The current 
NHC intensity forecast is close to the middle of the guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 16.4N 118.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 16.9N 120.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 17.7N 123.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 17.9N 125.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 18.3N 126.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 19.0N 128.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 20.4N 131.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 22.2N 133.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven
 
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