ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The overall structure of Karina has remained largely unchanged, with 
a fragmented convective band located over the southern semicircle. 
Moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear continues to impart a 
slight northward tilt to the vortex, with most of the deep 
convection located over and north of the low-level circulation 
center. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is 
T3.5/55 kt, which aligns with the latest objective estimates from 
UW-CIMSS. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is 
held at 55 kt.
 
Karina continues on a northwestward heading of about 310/10 kt, 
driven by a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern United 
States. The storm is expected to slow down and turn westward as a 
mid-level trough to the north breaks down this ridge, allowing the 
ridge over the central North Pacific to build southeastward and take 
over as the primary steering flow. The NHC track forecast closely 
follows the HCCA guidance, essentially remaining unchanged from the 
previous forecast. 

SHIPS guidance continues to show a favorable environment for Karina 
to intensify over the next 60 h. Driven by light wind shear, warm 
SSTs, and abundant atmospheric moisture, conditions are conducive 
for the storm to reach major hurricane status. This is further 
supported by the Google DeepMind ensemble mean, where over 80 
percent of members bring Karina to major hurricane intensity. Beyond 
the weekend, SHIPS diagnostics indicate that conditions will 
deteriorate, which should induce a weakening trend by early next 
week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 14.7N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 15.5N 118.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 16.5N 120.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 16.9N 122.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 17.3N 123.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  31/1800Z 17.6N 125.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 18.1N 127.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 19.3N 129.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 20.8N 132.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs
 
NNNN