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Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Visible satellite imagery continues to show Karina with 
distinct, well-organized spiral banding around a central dense 
cloudy inner core. The latest subjective intensity estimate of 
T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, is lining up well with the objective 
intensity estimates of 50 to 60 kt from UW-CIMSS. Because of this, 
the initial intensity was maintained at 55 kt.

Karina is on a northwestward heading of 310/10 kt. This should 
continue through the next 24 h or so as ridging will build over the 
Southwestern United States. Karina is then forecast to slow slightly 
and be steered in a more westerly direction this weekend as a 
mid-level trough first erodes the aforementioned ridge, and another 
ridge over the central North Pacific quickly builds southeastward in 
its place. The overall track of Karina was shifted a bit farther 
south from the previous advisory, following the HCCA guidance, but 
the reliable guidance remains in good agreement through the early 
portion of the forecast. Model spread increases significantly 
thereafter reducing confidence of Karina's exact track toward the 
latter end of the forecast period.

The SHIPS guidance remains largely unchanged, still showcasing a 
favorable environment for intensification over the next 60 h or so. 
Given the light shear, warm SSTs, and moisture-laden atmosphere, 
Karina has all the necessary ingredients conducive to significantly 
strengthen to major hurricane status. The latest guidance from 
Google DeepMind now features over 80 percent of the ensemble members 
showing Karina becoming a major hurricane. The SHIPS diagnostics 
show environmental conditions becoming less conducive for 
strengthening after the weekend and weakening becoming becoming 
increasingly likely early next week. Slight adjustments to the 
intensity forecast have been made to reflect the guidance.
 

 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 14.2N 116.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 15.1N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 16.2N 119.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 17.3N 122.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  31/1200Z 17.5N 124.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 18.0N 126.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 19.1N 129.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 20.6N 131.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Zelinsky
 
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