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Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Karina is slowly becoming better organized, with visible satellite 
imagery showing increased spiral banding around a central dense 
overcast. The low-level center is still on the southwestern side of 
the convection, but the distance is decreasing to the mid-level 
center.  A recent scatterometer pass shows maximum winds near 50 
kt, and given the known low bias of ASCAT, the intensity is set to 
55 kt, which also matches the latest TAFB classification.
 
Karina is moving northwestward at about 9 kt.  There are no 
changes in the synoptic pattern to report as a mid-level ridge
over the SW United States should gradually build westward.  This 
evolution forces Karina to turn west-northwestward and westward this
weekend.  A bend back to the northwest is likely early next week
due to the ridge being weakened by an approaching mid-latitude 
trough.  The guidance envelope is very similar to the last forecast 
advisory, and the new forecast is close to the previous one, near 
the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) model.

There is some increasing confidence that Karina will become a 
strong hurricane with signs of inner-core alignment ongoing.  Given 
the light shear, it seems very likely that sometime this weekend 
the low- and mid-level centers will become positioned for 
significant strengthening in otherwise conducive large-scale 
conditions.  Thus the new forecast is higher than the last one, and 
could be conservative near peak intensity given rising rapid 
intensification probabilities from SHIPS and DTOPS.  Weakening 
should begin in 4 days or so due to the cyclone moving over the 
cooling waters of the eastern Pacific.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 13.7N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 14.6N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 15.9N 118.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 16.9N 120.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 17.5N 121.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  31/0600Z 17.9N 123.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 18.2N 125.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 19.1N 128.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 20.0N 130.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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