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Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026

It is a bit challenging to find the center of Karina this morning 
on conventional satellite imagery, though it appears to be near a 
new convective burst on the northwestern side of the cloud envelope. 
A recent GMI microwave pass shows a tilted structure, with the 
low-level center a bit southwest of the mid-level core.  Dvorak 
estimates haven't changed much since the last advisory, so the 
initial intensity remains 45 kt.  
 
Karina is moving northwestward at about 9 kt.  A mid-level ridge 
over the SW United States should gradually build westward, causing 
the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward and westward this 
weekend.  A bend back to the northwest is possible early next week 
due to the ridge being eroded by a mid-latitude trough.  There is a 
subtle southward and leftward guidance change on this cycle, and the 
new forecast moves in that direction, close to a blend of the latest 
HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) 
aids.

The intensity forecast is difficult because while the large-scale 
environmental conditions are quite conducive for intensification, 
the inner-core structure is still broad and misaligned.  Given the 
low shear, the inner core should eventually organize, but the 
timing on this alignment is hard to forecast.  While guidance has 
come down somewhat on this cycle, there's enough uncertainty to 
stay on the higher end of the guidance, just below the HCCA model, 
until better evidence emerges that it will struggle more like the 
regional hurricane guidance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 13.2N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 14.1N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 15.6N 117.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 16.7N 119.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 17.6N 121.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  31/0000Z 18.0N 123.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 18.3N 124.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 19.1N 127.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 20.2N 130.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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