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Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
800 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

Tropical Storm Karina has gradually strengthened since the last 
advisory, indicated by the most recent subjective Dvorak estimate of 
T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, and the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS 
sitting around 35 to 45 kt. Latest satellite imagery continues to 
display relatively well-organized convection surrounding the center 
of Karina, with a slightly elongated circulation in place. Given the 
above, the NHC initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt.
 
Karina's initial motion estimate has altered a bit from the previous 
advisory as well, now set at 315/11 kt. This heading is forecast to 
prevail through the next several days as mid- to upper-level ridging 
centered over much of the southwestern US will dictate Karina's 
motion prior to the intervention of an upper-level trough by early 
next week. Because of this interaction, and as showcased by model 
guidance, particularly GDMI and HCCA, Karina's track will begin to 
steer more westward. The reliable guidance remains in good 
agreement on the track of Karina, with confidence decreasing as 
model spread increases toward the latter end of the forecast early 
next week.
 
Guidance provided by the ECMWF SHIPS indicates that Karina remains 
in a favorable environment for steady intensification over the next 
several days as Karina is forecast to move through a moisture-laden 
area with low shear. SHIPS-RII consensus guidance suggests a 
nearly 60 percent chance of a 55 kt increase in winds over the next 
48 hours; a 10 percent increase from the previous advisory. In 
fact, the latest guidance from Google DeepMind indicates a 60 
percent chance that Karina becomes a major hurricane by early next 
week. However, it is important to note that given Karina currently 
lacks a tight inner core, the NHC forecast reflects a slower 
intensification rate. Conversely, if an inner core is established 
sooner, Karina could intensify much quicker than forecast. Karina 
is forecast to transition into a more stable environment and begin 
weakening by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 11.9N 112.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 12.9N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 14.3N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 15.7N 117.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 17.0N 118.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 17.8N 120.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 18.3N 122.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 18.8N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 20.2N 127.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Zelinsky
 
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