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Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
200 AM MST Sun Jul 19 2026
 
The tropical depression appears to be slowly becoming better 
organized this morning. However, after the prior advisory, an 
ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed that the circulation remains broad 
and is still in the organizing stages. The latest subjective Dvorak 
classification from TAFB was T2.5/35 kt, but the objective intensity 
estimates are still in the 25-30 kt range. A blend of the subjective 
and objective estimates supports maintaining the initial intensity 
at 30 kt this advisory.
 
The initial motion continues off to the west-northwest at 290/12 kt. 
The depression remains situated to the south of a mid-level ridge 
centered over Mexico, though a weakness exists to the northwest, 
created by the departing tropical storm Elida. Over the next few 
days, the mid-level ridge is expected to build westward, removing 
this weakness. Thus, while TD6-E may gain a bit of latitude in the 
24-48 h period, a general west-northwestward motion is expected for 
most of the forecast. The tropical cyclone may even turn a bit 
leftward by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track 
forecast is just a little north of the prior track forecast, but 
remains close to the reliable TVCN and GDMI track aids. 

The aforementioned scatterometer data suggests it may take 12-24 h 
for the depression's wind field to contract and take advantage of 
the environmental conditions. Other than its short-term structure, 
these factors all appear quite favorable for significant 
intensification (low shear, ample moisture, very warm sea-surface 
temperatures). Thus, significant intensification is forecast after 
the next day or so, especially from 36-60 h where a period of rapid 
intensification is explicitly forecast. There is a negative factor 
beyond this time frame. The current forecast track of the depression 
takes the system toward ocean waters churned up by the circulation 
of tropical storm Elida. If the tropical cyclone moves over this 
cool wake, it could limit the storm's peak intensity beyond 72 h, 
with SHIPS guidance showing it close to straddling the 26 C 
isotherm. For now, the NHC intensity forecast still shows a peak 
intensity of 95 kt in 72 h, just shy of major hurricane intensity, 
with some modest weakening shown in days 4-5. The NHC intensity 
forecast is roughly in between the latest GDMI and HCCA intensity 
aids, but is notably higher than the HAFS-A/B guidance this cycle. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 12.1N 110.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 12.5N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 13.2N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 15.5N 117.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 16.3N 119.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 17.3N 124.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 18.2N 129.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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