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Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
800 PM MST Sat Jul 18 2026
 
Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the low 
pressure area well south of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula now has a well-defined circulation and sufficient 
organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. Thus, 
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E. The 
initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a combination of the 
earlier scatterometer data and a satellite intensity estimate from 
TAFB.

The initial motion is 290/10 kt.  The depression is on the south 
side of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northwestern 
Mexico. This feature should steer the cyclone generally 
west-northwestward for the next three days or so, followed by a 
more westward motion as the ridge builds westward. The track 
guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, although the HWRF 
and HMON show a more westward track than the other models after 36 
h. The track forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope.
 
The scatterometer data suggested that the depression's radius of 
maximum wind is 70-100 n mi, and it may take some time for this 
to contract or for the cyclone to form a new inner wind core. 
Once the system gets better organized, though, the environment is 
favorable for steady to rapid strengthening, particularly after 24 
h. The intensity forecast calls for the system to strengthen to 80 
kt by 60 h, and this is at the lower edge of the intensity 
guidance. The forecast 95-kt peak intensity is more in the middle of 
the guidance envelope, but there are several models calling for the 
system to become a major hurricane at 72-96 h. Slow weakening is 
expected to start by 120 h since the forecast track takes the 
cyclone over cooler sea surface temperatures.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 11.3N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 11.9N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 12.6N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 13.4N 114.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 14.6N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  21/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 16.0N 119.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 16.7N 122.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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