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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
200 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026

A combination of geostationary and microwave satellite imagery 
shows that the depression has a small, but well-defined, 
circulation with a cluster of convection just to the west and 
northwest of the center. Various satellite intensity estimates are 
in the 25-35 kt range and have increased some since the last 
advisory. Based on this increase, the initial intensity is raised 
to 30 kt.

The cyclone is moving a little faster to the northwest with the 
initial motion now 310/5 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of 
the system should cause a northwestward to west-northwestward 
motion at a slightly faster forward speed during the next couple 
of days. After that, a westward to southwestward turn is expected 
as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the northwest of the 
cyclone. The main change in the track guidance since the last 
advisory is to show a more southward track after 36 h. Based on 
this, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track 
through 36 h and then lies south of the previous track.

While the depression is currently experiencing some southeasterly 
shear, it is embedded in a moist air mass and over warm sea surface 
temperatures. Indeed, during the next 48 h the environment is 
favorable enough that the SHIPS model rapid intensification indices 
are showing a 25-30 percent chance of RI. However, the dynamical 
guidance is not as bullish on strengthening. The forecast peak 
intensity has been raised to 55 kt, which lies between the GFS- and 
ECMWF-based SHIPS models on one side and the less intense dynamical 
models on the other.  After peak intensity, a combination of 
increasing shear, a drier air mass, and upper-level convergence 
should cause the cyclone to weaken.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 10.2N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 10.8N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 11.6N 129.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 12.6N 130.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 13.3N 132.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 13.6N 133.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 13.7N 133.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 13.4N 134.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 12.8N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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